MIDSEASON CHECK-IN
The Blind Squirrels had their say at the start of the season and now we get to check in on how the little fuzzy-tailed rats are doing in their selections as we set up the second half of the season.
Halas Division: Lyon (6-2), Toronto (5-3), Reno (1-7), Aspen (0-8)
The Call: The preseason crystal ball said for Toronto to win the auto-berth by taking the division.
The Reality: At the midway point the Spartans sit one game off the pace for both the Halas title and a potential wild card spot. Week 11 is the moment of truth as Lyon visits Toronto to try and salvage a split of the regular-season meeting between the teams. Even a win in that contest might not be enough though. Toronto has games against 6-win teams in Rochester and Salem as well as contests against San Diego and Charleston in the back half of the schedule. Lyon, by comparison, has just one opponent in addition to Toronto that managed 5 wins in the first half of the season. Reno and Aspen appear to be looking toward the future.
Brown Division: Rochester (6-2), Maine (4-4), Natchitoches (4-4), Hawai’I (3-5)
The Call: The blind squirrels said Maine would take it, but at this stage the Event are playing just .500 ball and find themselves needing to make up two games in the back half of the season.
The Reality: It is hard to see Rochester losing this division. The Americans, who were a preseason wild card pick, have a back-half schedule featuring only one game against a team with a winning record currently. Compare that to Maine’s slate that features 4 games against teams at 6-2 or better and it is hard to see that two-game gap melting. Natchitoches and Hawai’I meet in Week 11 in a game where the winner can still entertain hopes for this season but the loser is likely done for the year. The Islanders have struggled at times with turnovers, but have a pleasant streak of six games against foes with 4 or fewer wins to give rookie QB Curtis Brown a better chance to settle in before hitting Star City and Rochester to close things out.
Shula Division: Parlor City (7-1), Salem (6-2), Bennington (4-4), Arkansas (1-7)
The Call: The preseason tag was applied to Salem and the Witches are within a game of the division lead and would be in with a wild card if we went straight to the playoffs today. With games in Week 10 and 12 against Parlor City, Salem very much controls its own road to the title still.
The Reality: It won’t be easy for the Witches, who have six games against teams with winning records to come. Meanwhile, we were highly doubtful when the Phantoms were picked to miss the playoffs, and that prediction looks downright insane after the way Parlor City sliced through the front half of the season with only a hiccup against Coos Bay. If they can deliver against Salem the schedule over the back half should empower the team to reclaim the Shula trophy. Bennington, at 4-4, already has more wins than it managed in any of the three previous seasons. The Bulldogs should be able to add to that total as they run through the back of the schedule, but probably not enough to challenge the frontrunners. Arkansas would need a miracle.
Walsh Division: Tallahassee (7-1), Star City (6-2), Boise (3-5), Tennessee (0-8)
The Call: Tallahassee was tabbed to win the division and they’re sitting in the pole position midway through with only an overtime blemish against undefeated Canton marring their record.
The Reality: Undoubtedly some heads turned in the preseason when Star City was called as a wild card team, but here we are and the Golden Pterodactyls are 6-2 and would, in fact, be a wild card qualifier for the playoffs if we froze things right now. But with games against the Talons in weeks 9 and 11, there’s no reason the big birds shouldn’t be aiming higher than a mere wild card spot. Boise will need to step things up if they hope to close the gap while Tennessee is hoping to get off the slide with a back-half schedule that won’t provide many easy opportunities.
Knoll Division: Glendora (7-1), Perth (4-4), Brooklyn (1-7), Santa Fe (0-8)
The Call: Glendora was picked to be the class of the Stripes Conference and, while they do have a loss to Rochester, the Dragons feature one of the scariest, most high-powered offenses in the EFL this season.
The Reality: With a 3-game lead, it is hard to see a scenario where the Dragons surrender the lead of the division. Circle Week 15 on the calendar though as Glendora and Canton are scheduled to square off. Since the wild card chase is far more chaotic here in the Stars, the Perth Wallabies sit just one game off the postseason pace. Perth also features one of the more sadistic back-half schedules and better figure out how to play defense to stay in the chase. Brooklyn and Santa Fe are looking for brighter days.
Landry Division: California (5-3), Coos Bay (5-3), Rancho Cucamonga (4-3-1) Tacoma (2-6)
The Call: We tabbed the Crusaders to win it and for Coos Bay to follow as a wild card recipient. It could happen.
The Reality: Buckle up for the back half of the season! The Crusaders and Red Rocks will tangle in weeks 12 and 14 in games that could clarify or further muddle matters. California does not play a game against a team with a losing record in the back half of the season. Coos Bay also has a series of tests, though not quite as strenuous as the Crusaders’ slate. Which bring us to the Cobras, currently a half-game out, with one game against both division leaders remaining (and a tiebreak edge on Coos Bay).
Parcells Division: Canton (8-0), Milwaukee (5-3), Fort Drum (3-5), St. Louis (2-6)
The Call: Milwaukee was the pick, and does have a record that would put them on the number needed to reach the playoffs via a wild card slot, but there’s a 3-game chasm (technically 4 since the Crush have swept the season with the Wild) sitting there if they want to win the division.
The Reality: The Crush have been one of the big stories from the front half of the season. Canton has never won more than 10 games in a season but looks like it will get above that standard this year. Four of their wins are by less than a touchdown, so they’re not blowing everyone out of the water, but they are finding ways to win. The Wild will be trying to stay on postseason pace with a back-half schedule that includes both Glendora (in Week 9) and Tallahassee (in Week 16). Fort Drum and St. Louis need a major back-half win streak to maneuver into position for this season’s playoffs.
Gibbs Division: Charleston (5-3), San Diego (5-3), Mt. Washington (4-3-1), Columbus City (4-4)
The Call: Charleston as the winner, Mt. Washington as a wild card.
The Reality: Easily the race to watch coming down the stretch as all four teams are very much alive for both the title and a possible wild card. The Geechee, who have the best offense-to-defense ratio right now, will only face two teams with losing records over the back half of the season, but also don’t see a team with better than a 5-3 mark. San Diego has five games against winning opponents as they look to challenge for a title one season after a 6-10 mark. Mt. Washington, in pursuit of the first postseason game in franchise history, has four games against winning records (and a fifth against a 4-4 team). Columbus City has seven games against winning opponents and looks to have the steepest route to the top. Be very surprised if this division is settled before Week 16.