Welcome to the new Beta version of the MyFootballNow website! Please note that while using the Beta website, some features may not work correctly and other features are not complete. Some elements, such as notifications and chat, may act strangely during the time that both versions of the site are available. If you need to return to the old version, click on the button below.
Just looking for some opinions here. How many rounds deep do you go before you start with the high volatility guys?
Re: Expansion draft
by
Garrok
@
1/04/2019 6:20 pm
Depends on draft quality & your draft positioning (top of round vs bottom of round). Also sometimes it's worthwhile to roll the dice on a high VOL in the end of Round 1 if the upside is worth it (chance at a top-5 player vs a depth piece).
Typically it's around the 4th Round for me.
Also NOTE: as you get later into the draft, the VOL can change from what's listed on the player card, as you get later in the draft the VOL can increase, higher as you get to the later rounds, but it won't be visible until after the player has been drafted. ie. If a player card shows a VOL of 50, it will likely stay at 50 for Rounds 1-3, but once you get to Round 4 it might increase to 53, Round 5 to 60, Round 6 to 64, Round 7 to 70. This increases the chance to landing a useful player later in the draft where the talent becomes harder to come by.
Garrok is right on with how I usually draft. However, lately I've looked more at taking a higher VOL player in Round 2 or 3 if the situation calls for it.
Example: I have a LB on my team rated at 75 and he is stable with his ratings (no more + or -). During the draft I have 2 players I like at LB, also rated at 75. Starting in Round 2, I would probably go with the higher VOL draftee, because he has more potential to boom to the 80's than the lower VOL player does. If he busts, I still have a decent LB at the starting position and the drafted player becomes the backup.
Disclaimer: When it works, it's great! But, you will get some busts in there, too.
That's pretty much how i do it also in the established leagues. What about when starting in a new league and drafting a whole team?
Last edited 1/05/2019 7:19 am
Re: Expansion draft
by
mwd65
@
1/05/2019 10:56 am
That's a different ballgame! There are many different ways owners evaluate the allocation. Mine is...
The first day, I will try and go with very low VOL players and young. These are the guys you want to be on your team for 10+ years, so I don't usually take a chance on VOL the first day. I will generally look for: QB / WR / 2DB's / and start with a Dline.
On Day 2, I'll start looking at what positions still have good players left. Those positions weak with talent left in the draft, I will try and grab early, still trying to look for low VOL guys, but more accepting of high VOL if position is needed.
That's a different ballgame! There are many different ways owners evaluate the allocation. Mine is...
The first day, I will try and go with very low VOL players and young. These are the guys you want to be on your team for 10+ years, so I don't usually take a chance on VOL the first day. I will generally look for: QB / WR / 2DB's / and start with a Dline.
On Day 2, I'll start looking at what positions still have good players left. Those positions weak with talent left in the draft, I will try and grab early, still trying to look for low VOL guys, but more accepting of high VOL if position is needed.
Day 3 on, VOL doesn't matter much anymore to me.
Guess we will have to wait to confirm how it is in 4.5. But in current 4.4, the WR position has taken a backseat to RB & TE. Receiving and rushing stats for the league bear this out. The running game has increased in importance. Good DE's are paramount on defense, adequate DTs that can stop the inside run are available late. I would also put SLB & MLB higher on the list of position importance. FB is also no longer a "non-producing" position, the FB can contribute more receiving in 4.4, and its not a bad idea to have 2 or 3 that can play FB & TE equally. Its also a good idea to get good pass blocking on your FB for 4.4
With a 50% chance of going up or down makes me use vol. as a tool . One to gauge a final number. As all ratings don't go up and down the same. For me I check for a tell of a boomer with good static ratings so he will end up technically sound as well.
This is the last few drafts rounds 1-3 under this tell. As rounds 4 through 7 the same tell doesn't work at all.
Eugene Boldt C 6' 4" 283 1-22 New Orleans New Orleans 81 86 John Flock TE 6' 4" 257 1-26 New Orleans New Orleans 83 88 Freeman Tomita FS 6' 0" 206 2-1 New Orleans New Orleans 72 81 Richard Hill QB 5' 10" 220 2-26 New Orleans New Orleans 66 79 Douglas Burditt CB 5' 11" 191 3-26 New Orleans New Orleans 66 81
roy Como WR 6' 1" 198 1-28 Houston Houston 55 90 Philip Hart MLB 6' 4" 273 2-28 Houston Houston 38 76 Thomas Cuevas RB 5' 11" 224 3-13 Houston Houston 45 77 Harold McKinney CB 6' 2" 235 3-28 Houston Houston 39 63 Frank Shaver FB 5' 11" 221 3-32 Houston Houston 49 74
That's 14 of 16 guys booming from my most recent drafts. Most with high vol.
Years ago Pre volatility being shown. Boomers were easy to spot imo. Since , some things have changed to make that harder, but after a year or so this method seems solid enough to say I cracked it for early half of the draft.
Fair or not in the past I have suggested that boomers Dont alway go up and busts don't always go down, but to add some variation to that model.
