Let’s start by getting this out of the way: the FL Hitch is broken. We all know it’s broken; we know how it’s broken; and we are all going to use it anyway
because it is broken.
Now, let’s talk about you can defend it. If y’all find this interesting, then I could be persuaded to do posts about two other plays that I have seen being the bane of about every league I’ve been in since coming back to MFN: the HB Flare and the Deep Corners.
It has also given me an excuse to take a weekend dusting off some data analytic skills, and beginning to branch out into R. (Because while I enjoy playing MFN, those of y’all that know me know I’m just in it for the data.)
The HitchThe Hitch will destroy your team even when you have game planned for it. There is a reason why you see so many teams win despite only controlling the ball for 20 mins and completing < 50% of their passes.
The reason that this happens, and we all know this so there is little point in re-telling it, but here goes, is that the WR2 breaks down the CB when starting the slant route. If the CB reacts poorly, the WR2 is gone. And if there is no safety deep, the WR2 has an open lane all the way down field.
How about some data?I’ve been using MFN as an excuse to keep my SQL sharp. Since game logs are nicely downloadable as CSV, I have built a SQLite database in which to transform the raw game log into analyzable statistics because I am
that kind of nerd.
The below data is taken from me and another owner’s defensive statistics across 4 leagues (only 2 of which we jointly play in). [If you really want to get into the details of the data or the database, PM me.]
What you’re looking at is a plot of median yards given up against the Hitch plotted against the standard deviation for yards gained on a completion. The data was pre-filtered to defensive plays that have given up < 5 median yards per play in at least 10 attempts.
What you want to look for is the lowest median and lowest standard deviation because that means you are giving up the fewest yards per play against the hitch with a less chance that the play is going to break long.I only really want to call out a few things about the data.
The Flat Zone – I have seen more owners defaulting to this as their Hitch defense because, as you can see in the data, it works. The one thing that you have to be cautious of with the Flat Zone is the high standard deviation. If the WR2 breaks down the coverage, there is no deep safety help, which is going to lead to a big play. The reason the median stays so low on it is because the linebacker help forces a lot of incompletions.
The 46 Heavy – I love this play for reasons being discussed in the USFL forums. It’s a great all around utility play against the 212 and 122 passes, and as you can see, it keeps the Hitch in check as well. The benefit here is that you have two deep safeties for when the WR2 breaks loose, and one of those deep safeties plays shallow enough to come over on help defense.
The Nickel Double WR1 – This is a wildcard. I don’t want to admit this, but I had overlooked this play. And I can’t tell you when I would have been testing it against the Hitch – I suspect it was during a phase of testing different prevent defenses. Anyway, what’s interesting about this play is that it forces a number of passes to the WR1. This is the other sure way to beat the Hitch. I’m going to be looking into it more, but I’m not sure how much to trust the data on this right now.
Wrap this up alreadySo there y’all go. I hope you have enjoyed a different way to think about game planning the Hitch. I have certainly enjoyed practicing my data skills.
UPDATE: I updated my database, and the 46 dropped to 3.5 med, so I updated the scatterplot.
Last edited at 6/21/2020 5:36 pm